Modest fall in total UK construction output at start of 2025

January sees business activity decline for first time since February 2024 following 10 months of sustained expansion

A MODEST fall in total UK construction industry output was recorded at the start of 2025, ending a 10-month period of sustained expansion. Shrinking order books and rising cost pressures contributed to the weakest business activity expectations since October 2023.

At 48.1 in January, down sharply from 53.3 in December, the headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered below the 50.0 no-change threshold for the first time since February 2024.

Construction companies said delayed decision-making by clients on major projects and general economic uncertainty had weighed on business activity at the start of 2025. Several firms also commented on the impact of subdued market conditions in the residential building sector. Latest data showed that house building (index at 44.9) decreased for the fourth successive month and at the fastest pace since January 2024.

Civil engineering activity (44.6) declined at a relatively sharp rate, although this partly reflected disruptions from unusually wet weather at the start of the year. Meanwhile, output in the commercial construction category also returned to contraction in January (48.9). This was linked to a lack of tender opportunities and a reluctance among clients to commit to new projects.

January data pointed to a decline in incoming new work for the first time in 12 months. Although only modest, the rate of contraction was the steepest since November 2023. Anecdotal evidence suggested that a lack of confidence among clients and worries about the UK economic outlook had contributed to fewer sales enquires.

Purchasing activity decreased for the second month in a row, reflecting weak order books and a lack of new work to replace completed projects. Despite softer demand for construction products and materials, the latest survey indicated the steepest rise in input costs since April 2023, with suppliers seeking to pass on rising energy, transportation, and staff costs. 

Whilst around 38% of the survey panel predict a rise in business activity over the year ahead and only 17% forecast a reduction, this points to the lowest degree of business optimism since October 2023. Survey respondents cited a post-Budget dip in confidence among clients, alongside weakening sales pipelines and the impact of lacklustre domestic economic conditions.

Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: ‘UK construction output fell for the first time in nearly a year as gloomy economic prospects, elevated borrowing costs and weak client confidence resulted in subdued workloads.

‘Output levels decreased across the board in January, with particularly sharp reductions seen in the residential and civil engineering categories.

‘Construction firms noted the fastest fall in residential work for 12 months as market conditions remained somewhat subdued. Anecdotal evidence suggested that caution regarding demand for new projects was prevalent at the start of 2025, despite strong policy support for house building and hopes for a longer-term boost to supply via planning reform.

‘The forward-looking survey indicators were also relatively downbeat in January. New orders decreased at the fastest pace since November 2023 amid many reports of delayed decision-making by clients. Reduced workloads, combined with concerns about the general UK economic outlook, led to a dip in business activity expectations to the lowest for 15 months.’