QPA calls for rethink on demand forecast

THE Quarry Products Association has called on the Government to re-evaluate its aggregate demand forecast assumptions. The request came after independent research, commissioned by the QPA, indicated that the Government is in danger of underestimating the future quantity of aggregates which will be required to meet its own forecasts for construction and infrastructure programmes.

The forecast by the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (ODPM) aims to predict likely demand for all aggregates used in England to 2016. In doing so it will play a critical role in the revision of mineral planning guidelines (MPG 6) which provide the basis for determining future planning permissions and licences to extract.

The ODPM assumes that demand for aggregates in England will be relatively flat for the forecast period, but the independent research by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) concludes that demand is most likely to increase by around 20% over this period.

The principal difference between the two forecasts is that the CEBR analysis identifies public and infrastructure investment as the key driver of future aggregates demand, and assumes that the Government’s investment plans will be implemented and therefore increase demand for aggregates.

QPA director general Simon van der Byl said the physical improvements planned for the country’s transport networks, schools, hospitals, social housing and other public services would require an increasing supply of aggregates in order to be implemented, and to achieve this would require a robust and realistic forecast to ensure that sufficient amounts of aggregate reserves could be released in the right place and at the right time.

‘The ODPM forecasts are a good starting point to this review, but we believe the independent results from the CEBR indicate that the Government needs to re-evaluate its forecast assumptions, and particularly the positive implications for construction and aggregates demand of public and infrastructure investment programmes.’

Mr van der Byl added that the QPA was in full agreement with the ODPM, that it was necessary to make full use of recycled and secondary materials in aggregates markets and that, in the context of the planning system, these materials should be regarded as the top of the supply chain, with primary aggregates making up the balance of supply.

‘The combination of making full use of recycled and secondary sources, continually improving operational standards, and high-quality restoration and aftercare means that the aggregates industry can meet society’s needs for its products in a way which is compatible with the Government’s sustainability objectives,’ he said.